Weekly Meta Analysis – Season 3 Week 7

Hello, and welcome to the weekly meta analysis; this will be a short weekly post looking over the results from the week’s tournaments, and how they have impacted the tournament meta.

Before I start with the numbers, I’d like to make an important disclaimer: the majority of these results will not be statistically significant, and so attempting to use this data as the basis of a discussion on bans/format health would not be useful. Instead, this data is meant to help understand the tournament meta, and if there was a truly dominant deck, it would most likely show after a few weeks of a stable meta. This is also only an analysis of the tournament meta, and Gladiator is significantly more than just the matches that occur in the weekly tournaments.

As such I will be sharing three data sets each week:

  • The weekly tournament analysis – This will be short and simple, simply aiming to understand how the events in a given week have unfolded
  • The current meta analysis – For example as I write this, we have just had the second week of events since the release of the Historic Anthology 5; so this analysis will cover all events from that release until a change in the card pool. This is the most important data set, as it will allow for discussions on the current health of the format over a larger set of results.
  • An overall historic (not the format) meta analysis – This is more of a curiosity to track, and to see over time the most popular decks, and how they have performed

All Match Win Percentage (MW%) data is being presented with the mirror matches removed, so as to give a truer representation of each deck’s abilities.

S3 W7 Analysis

Deck NameWinsLossesTotal MatchesMW%
Gruul Aggro1181957.89
Sultai Control1261866.67
Boros Aggro781546.67
Mono-Green Stompy1051566.67
Mono-White Aggro731070
Mono-White Death & Taxes731070
Abzan Lands551050
Mono-Red Aggro731070
Orzhov Death & Taxes371030
Grixis Control45944.44
Sultai Combo23540
Boros Death & Taxes32560
Rakdos Aggro23540
Golgari Midrange14520
Selesnya Midrange14520
Simic Tempo23540
Grixis Tempo23540
Four-color Ramp23540
Abzan Midrange505100
Sultai Some Brand of Cereal32560
Selesnya Death & Taxes32560
Jeskai Control32560
Jund Combo13425
Izzet Gift13425
Bant Control13425
Izzet Blitz0440
Sultai Madness13425
Five-color Planeswalkers0330
Naya Midrange0330

Week 7 had an interesting set of results, with the usually popular Jeskai Control only having one entry and Boros Aggro having its worst week of results in a while. The variants of Mono-White looked strong, with both Aggro and Death & Taxes putting in a very strong showing, with a combined 14-6 record. Sultai Control was the surprise of the week, putting in several strong results, and showing that control doesn’t always need white to put in a good showing.

The interactive data set and the matchup matrix for Week 7 is available here.

Historic Anthology 5 Meta

Each week I will share the 15 most played decks in the meta, as well as any decks that share the number of matches played with the 15th deck. This will hopefully allow for a picture of the HA5 meta to develop, while cutting the singleton appearance decks from clogging this article.

Deck NameWinsLossesTotal MatchesMW%
Gruul Aggro18112962.07
Jeskai Control14142850
Boros Aggro13132650
Mono-Green Stompy1782568
Grixis Control14102458.33
Sultai Control1672369.57
Mono-White Death & Taxes1462070
Mono-Red Aggro1051566.67
Abzan Midrange961560
Abzan Lands781546.67
Rakdos Aggro691540
Mono-White Aggro1051566.67
Orzhov Death & Taxes5101533.33
Jund Combo591435.71
Sultai Combo681442.86
Bant Control3111421.43

After two weeks of HA5 being released, its hard to make too many snap calls, but several forms of aggro continue to put in good results, and the control decks appear to be adapting to this, with less Blue-White control appearing, and more black removal based control starting to both show-up and put in reasonable results. The combo decks appear to be falling in both favor and results, possibly due to the variety of aggro decks that are now appearing on a consistent basis, while midrange appears to have such a diverse range of decks, that few make it into the top 15 in terms of decks played.

The interactive data set and the matchup matrix for HA5 is available here.

Overall Meta

Deck NameWinsLossesTotal MatchesMW%
Mono-Red Aggro865313961.87
Jeskai Control675812553.6
Sultai Combo614310458.65
Boros Aggro62379962.63
Mono-Green Stompy54358960.67
Gruul Aggro57318864.77
Azorius Control32447642.11
Grixis Control42276960.87
Sultai Control38276558.46
Esper Control16334932.65

The top 10 decks in the Overall Meta show an interesting mix of aggro, control, and combo, with Azorius Control being popular despite its apparent poor MW%. Red-based aggro also appears to be very popular, with 3 different archetypes all putting in very respectable results.

The full data set of 107 decks, and 698 matchups can be found here.

Signing Off

That concludes this week’s meta analysis, if you have any data you’d like to see feel free to contact me on the Gladiator Discord (Tyreworm#15017), or even just leaving thoughts in the #meta-discussion channel.